Five cannot fit into four. With just over a month remaining in the 2022 Canadian Premier League regular season, five teams remain closely bunched together, with five points separating first-place Atlético Ottawa from fifth-place Pacific FC. The problem, however, is that only four playoff spots are available. Each of those five teams has either five or six games left on the schedule, and things are closer than ever. Valour FC re-entered the race in Week 22, beating Forge FC twice to climb into fourth place. Now, the teams grouped at the top are feeling more pressure than ever to put points on the board before the door slams shut on one of them on Oct. 9 (or earlier). Plus, there’s the regular season title to consider: finishing atop the table would be a considerable achievement in such a crowded field this year, and each team will be desperate to secure first place and therefore home field advantage throughout the playoffs. FC Edmonton are technically the only side officially eliminated; both York United and HFX Wanderers could still make a late run, but nonetheless this appears primarily to be a five-team race. Which of those five will be the odd one out? Going team-by-team, this article will take a look at each of the contenders, analyzing their current form and the difficulty of their remaining schedule, to try and gauge how difficult it’ll be for each side to stay above the line in the top four.
Before beginning, it’s worth reminding everyone of the tiebreaking procedures. With points totals so close, these could well come into play when it comes to determining seeding and home field advantage for the two-legged playoff semi-final ties.
CPL Tiebreakers:
If one or more Teams finish the CPL Regular Season with the same number of points, tie breakers will be utilized in the following order: 1. Total number of wins
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Goal differential
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Goals for
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Away goals differential
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Away goals for
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Home goals differential
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Home goals for
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The club that accumulates the most U-21 Domestic Player Minutes during the regular season
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Coin toss (tie of two teams) or drawing of lots (tie of three or more teams) Without further ado, let’s begin at the top of the table.
1. Atlético Ottawa
**11 W, 7 D, 5 L (40 points)
+4 Goal Differential**
Matches Remaining: 5
Sept. 11 — @ Pacific FC
Sept. 18 — @ Valour FC
Sept. 24 — @ Cavalry FC
Oct. 1 — @ HFX Wanderers FC
Oct. 9 — vs. York United After finishing bottom of the table in 2021, Atlético Ottawa have had a remarkable 2022 campaign so far, led by first-year manager Carlos González — at this point, a likely contender for Coach of the Year. Ottawa climbed into first place in mid-August, when a 3-0 away win over Cavalry FC catapulted them to the top. They’ve only spent two weeks outside the top four all season, never falling lower than sixth in a dramatically improved campaign from their first two in the CPL. As it stands, Ottawa have at least a modicum of breathing room within the playoff picture, with five points separating them from fifth-place Pacific. A potential tiebreaking problem of Atleti, however, may lie in their goal differential. At +4, the only top-five side with a lower difference than them right now is Pacific. Ottawa have scored the fewest goals of the top five with 27, as well. They haven’t had a runaway scoring leader like some other teams have this year; Ollie Bassett leads the way with six, and both Ballou Tabla and Brian Wright sit just behind him with five apiece, but no other Atleti player has more than two goals. González will definitely hope to see his team create a little more in attack during September and October. Defensively, they’ve been excellent, with three consecutive clean sheets at time of writing, but they also haven’t scored in either of their last two matches. The five games left on the schedule for Ottawa present a tricky run-in, with a four-game road trip throughout September before finishing the year at home against York United. They play the first three of those away matches against direct top-four competitors and then end their year against a pair of teams that may well be eliminated by then. Fortunately for Ottawa, this team’s record away from home has been quite good — they’re 6-2-2 with 20 points and a +9 goal differential. Perhaps there’s something about how opposing teams play at home that allows Ottawa to create more transitional scoring chances. That said, Atleti would certainly like to win the regular season title, in hopes of playing a CPL Final in front of a raucous TD Place.
2. Cavalry FC
11 W, 5 D, 7 L (38 points)
+6 Goal Differential
Matches Remaining: 5
Sept. 10 — @ Forge FC
Sept. 17 — @ FC Edmonton
Sept. 24 — vs. Atlético Ottawa
Oct. 2 — vs. Valour FC
Oct. 8 — vs. Pacific FC Cavalry FC have consistently been a regular season juggernaut in the CPL, finishing no lower than second in any league table over three seasons. The field is more competitive than ever this time, though, and Tommy Wheeldon Jr.’s Cavs find themselves with a slim three-point margin ahead of Pacific after Labour Day. Like several of the other top-four contenders, August was not the smoothest month for Cavalry. They lost to both Valour and Atlético Ottawa, then drew 0-0 with HFX Wanderers on Monday. Still, gritty wins over Forge and York have kept the Calgary side afloat and perhaps a little better off than some of the other teams in this race. Their +6 goal difference is third-best in the league, although it’s not out of the question that they could catch Valour’s +8 or slip behind Ottawa’s +4. The Cavs have been very strong at the back this year with the likes of Daan Klomp and Karifa Yao — although the latter’s absence the past two games is something to keep an eye on. In attack, they have yet to fully replace the scoring prowess of Aribim Pepple, who scored six goals in seven games earlier this year before departing for Luton Town in England. Joe Mason also has six goals, but Wheeldon would surely like to see more production from him. The likes of José Escalante, Ali Musse, Ben Fisk, and several others all have the talent to electrify Cavalry’s attack, which is what they’ll need in September. Fortunately for Cavalry, they control their own destiny in the final stretch. They’re the only contender here to play each of the other four sides in the top five again, starting with a pivotal visit to Hamilton on Saturday. Their visit to Edmonton on Sept. 17 won’t be easy; the Eddies are desperate for a first win over their Alberta rivals. After that, the Cavs then end the season with three straight home games against top-four competitors. The Cavs have the best home record in the league with eight wins, no draws, and three defeats, and their home advantage may well grow if the temperatures begin to drop in October.
3. Forge FC
11 W, 3 D, 8 L (36 points)
+19 Goal Differential
Matches Remaining: 6
Sept. 10 — vs. Cavalry FC
Sept. 18 — @ Pacific FC
Sept. 25 — @ FC Edmonton
Oct. 1 — vs. York United
Oct. 5 — vs. Pacific FC
Oct. 9 — vs. HFX Wanderers FC The two-time champions and three-time finalists are not nearly as safe in their postseason berth as they’ve been in recent years. Currently on a five-game winless streak, of which they’ve lost four, Bobby Smyrniotis’ side really struggled at times to end the month of August. Their two consecutive 1-0 defeats at Valour over the past week are among the main reasons this is now undoubtedly a five-team race. Forge haven’t scored for three straight games for the first time in club history, which is particularly odd given that they’ve scored far more goals than anyone else in the league this year with 40. Their +19 goal differential blows the competition out of the water and surely won’t be matched, so the Hammers can rest easy with that advantage, but nonetheless the pressure is on to start picking up some points. The Hammers spent four matchweeks in first place, until as recently as Week 18. For a moment, they looked as if they might pull away at the top, with a six-game winning streak that preceded this current five-game winless run. That was not to be, however, and now Forge will be desperate to rekindle their attack. Woobens Pacius remains in the Golden Boot hunt with 10 goals, but Forge need the likes of Tristan Borges, Terran Campbell, and newcomer Jordan Hamilton to find their stride if they’re to push toward the top of the table again. Smyrniotis and co. will take solace in the fact that they have a game in hand over most top-four contenders with six matches remaining — although they did have another game in hand until they lost to Valour on Wednesday, missing that opportunity. Forge play Pacific both at home and away, and they’ll hope those games look more like their 3-0 win in June than the 2-1 loss in April. A three-game homestand to end the year is good news for the Hamilton side, although it must be said that Forge’s 5-2-3 record at home is only fifth-best in the CPL.
4. Valour FC
10 W, 6 D, 7 L (36 points)
+8 Goal Differential
Matches Remaining: 5
Sept. 10 — @ HFX Wanderers FC
Sept. 18 — vs. Atlético Ottawa
Sept. 23 — @ York United
Oct. 2 — @ Cavalry FC
Oct. 8 — @ FC Edmonton The Winnipeg club are right back in the playoff picture after going 5-1-1 since the beginning of August, outscoring opponents 8-2 over that red-hot stretch. With all of the other top four contenders dropping quite a few points in recent weeks, Phil Dos Santos’ group has propelled itself above the fourth-place line for the first time since June. Valour’s +8 goal differential is second-best in the league (helped in part by their 6-1 drubbing of Atlético Ottawa all the way back in April), and on current form it would be hard to pick against them. No team in the top five has scored more or conceded fewer goals than Valour in August. Their attack has found a new stride since the departure of William Akio with Sean Rea in particular enjoying an outstanding run of form in recent weeks. At the back, Valour have also improved considerably, despite a bit of a revolving door of players coming in and out of the lineup — Rocco Romeo has been a steady presence back there, as has mid-season newcomer Nassim Mekidèche, and Andrew Jean-Baptiste has been characteristically excellent in limited minutes. The tricky part for Valour will be evolving from a team in good form into a consistently-strong, bona fide title contender. They’ll probably want to score a little more consistently for that, although they’ve done very well against good teams by suffocating opposing attacks and finding opportunities in transition through the likes of Rea, Moses Dyer, or Brett Levis. One thing is clear: no CPL team wants to play Valour right now. Still, the Winnipeggers have a difficult run-in, with four of their last five games coming on the road and their lone match left at IG Field being a clash with first-place Atlético Ottawa. Valour started the year with some good results on the road but they’ve struggled more recently, losing to HFX Wanderers and Forge in their last two trips. They play each of the bottom three sides on the upcoming run, so Valour will surely go into each of those games expecting — and needing — to pick up results. That said, they have just seven points of a possible 18 against Edmonton and Halifax this year, so it won’t be easy for them.
5. Pacific FC
10 W, 5 D, 7 L (35 points)
0 Goal Differential
Matches Remaining: 6
Sept. 11 — vs. Atlético Ottawa
Sept. 18 — vs. Forge FC
Sept. 24 — @ HFX Wanderers FC
Sept. 30 — vs. FC Edmonton
Oct. 5 — @ Forge FC
Oct. 8 — @ Cavalry FC The defending champions close out this list, finding themselves in concerning form after falling out of the top four for the first time this year. Pacific spent the first nine weeks of the season in first place, but August was a strange month for the Tridents, who have now lost three straight games. Of course, Pacific played fewer league games than their counterparts in August, thanks to their travels in the Concacaf League. Since late July, they’ve travelled to both Jamaica and Costa Rica, plus they’ve had extra home games against Waterhouse and Herediano in their continental campaign. That additional load does seem to have taken a toll on James Merriman’s side. As a result of some of the fixture changes that came along with that Concacaf run, Pacific have a game in hand on all but Forge in the top five, which should help them control their own fate. The most concerning thing about Pacific’s play the past few weeks has been that their attack seems to have dried up recently. Top scorer Alejandro Díaz (still the CPL’s Golden Boot leader with 13 goals) departed the club for Sogndal in Norway on Aug. 10, and since then the Vancouver Island club have scored just two goals in CPL action. For a team that loves to play front-footed attacking football, that’s not nearly good enough; the Tridents are still missing that clinical presence in the middle. Merriman will be hoping that recent addition Jordan Brown can find his footing quickly to slot in as the centre-forward, and that star attackers like Marco Bustos and Josh Heard can hit top form over the next few weeks. Plus, Pacific will be heartened by the impending return of hard working midfielder Manny Aparicio, who has missed a lot of time this year with injury and suspension. The remaining schedule is well-balanced for Pacific, with three at home and three on the road, but they finish with a pair of difficult trips to Hamilton and Calgary within the space of a week. Pacific have visited both teams once so far this year, failing to score on either occasion — they lost 2-0 at Cavalry, then 3-0 at Forge a month and a half later. Still, this is a team that knows how to win tough must-win games, having done so consecutively in Calgary and Hamilton in the playoffs last year. This isn’t quite the same Pacific FC that won the title in 2022, but the quality in the squad will make them a very tough out down the stretch — just ask Herediano.
