AS IT STANDS: CPL Shield, spots 1-5 up for grabs in final week

One more week.

Just one week left in the regular season, and we still don't know what position any of the playoff teams are going to finish in.

That'll all be decided in the Outcome this Saturday, beginning at 4 p.m. ET. All eight CPL teams, playing simultaneously across four matches, to determine the CPL Shield winner and postseason seeding.

Thanksgiving weekend offered little clarity, due in part to a handful of draws. On Thursday night, Pacific FC took a shock 2-0 lead at York United, only for the Nine Stripes to punch back and score twice, including a 94th-minute Luca Accettola equalizer, to bag a point.

Friday night's contest saw Cavalry FC take the lead against Forge FC at home, but Forge hit back from the penalty spot and it ended 1-1.

The Halifax Wanderers, sensing a chance to leap into fourth after York's draw, weathered a storm of Valour possession but ultimately claimed a solid 3-0 win in Winnipeg.

Finally, Atlético Ottawa clung to their CPL Shield hopes but settled for a 0-0 draw with Vancouver FC on Sunday. Don't look now, but VFC have done a good job playing spoiler recently; they're unbeaten in five straight, and have back-to-back draws in Hamilton and Ottawa.

All that means nothing among the top five is decided heading into the final matchday, including the Shield and its coveted Concacaf Champions Cup spot.

For the first time since 2022, top spot in the table will be up for grabs on the last day of the regular season. Of course, Forge hold pole position in that regard, with a two-point lead and a guaranteed edge in the head-to-head tiebreaker. However, if they were to lose to York United on Saturday, and Ottawa beat Halifax, then Atleti would lift the Shield in Nova Scotia.

Meanwhile, any of Cavalry, Halifax or York could still finish third; if any of them win on Saturday while the other two lose, they'd take third. Outside of that, there are all sorts of permutations that could determine who finishes where.

There's a lot to watch for this weekend, from the battle for positioning, to certain individuals' pursuit of milestones. Sam Salter has the Golden Boot locked up, with a seven-goal lead over Tiago Coimbra, but he'd love to become the first player ever to hit 20 in a regular season. His teammate David Rodríguez is also aiming for some history; one assist would give him the CPL's all-time single-season assists record. If he adds a goal and an assist? He'd have completed the first ever 10 goal, 10 assist campaign.

Finally, there's one team we need to give major credit to here.

After the weekend's results in Major League Soccer, CPL side Vancouver FC have officially clinched a spot in the 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup. After their remarkable run to the TELUS Canadian Championship final, they knew they'd get a place in Concacaf if the Vancouver Whitecaps qualified via their league campaign — which they've now officially done, as the top side in the Western Conference.

If the playoffs started today...

With Halifax jumping into fourth, they would now tentatively host York in the knockout match to begin the playoffs. The winner of that would head across the country to Alberta for a semifinal qualifier against Cavalry.

Of course, all three sides would love to take that third place spot, and avoid the midweek game and travel involved, but at the very least, Halifax and York are desperate to finish fourth and get a home game.

Breaking down the run-in

Just one week left, so it's not much of a run-in.

Still, worth noting: Ottawa, Cavalry and York will all be on the road in their final match, while Forge and Halifax get one more match at home.

The Halifax-Ottawa matchup is arguably the most impactful, but so too is Forge-York; all four teams in those games have something significant to play for.

Awards Watch

There's very little time left for players to make a last-second push for any kind of award, with nominees set to be released shortly after the regular season ends this weekend.

However, could the way the table ends up have an impact on Coach of the Year nominees? It seems a near certainty that Atlético Ottawa's Diego Mejía gets one of the three nods, and Bobby Smyrniotis probably gets another whether Forge win the Shield or not. The third nomination might be up for grabs, though; would it be a huge surprise for any of Tommy Wheeldon Jr., Mauro Eustáquio or Patrice Gheisar to be in there?

Eustáquio might have the edge considering it's his first year in charge of York, but if his side finishes fifth, is it more likely that one of the two managers above him get more consideration?

U-21 Minutes Update

York United fans, rejoice! Thanks to Shola Jimoh's 90-minute shift, and Luca Accettola's 35 minutes off the bench, the Nine Stripes have hit exactly 2,000 U-21 minutes after Thursday's draw with Pacific.

That'll take one concern off Mauro Eustáquio's plate as he sets his team up for their regular season finale against Forge.

Speaking of Forge, the Hammers have actually jumped ahead of Halifax in the minutes table, thanks largely to another full 90 from Hoce Massunda.

All clubs have now reached the 2,000 threshold before the final week of the season, which is great news.

Coming up next…

Saturday, Oct. 18

Pacific FC vs. Valour FC — 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT
Vancouver FC vs. Cavalry FC — 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT
Forge FC vs. York United FC — 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT
Halifax Wanderers FC vs. Atlético Ottawa — 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT

(Watch all games live on OneSoccer. Plus, this week, watch the Outcome on TSN.)

Photo of the Week

Sergio Camargo just barely snuck this one between Jassem Koleilat and David Choinière.

(Photo by Mike Sturk)