Is this the most important game of the 2025 CPL regular season? Quite possibly.
Atlético Ottawa and Forge FC meet in the capital on Sunday in what may well be a showdown for the CPL Shield. The league's top two sides, separated by just two points in the standings with five weeks left to play, are both clamouring for that regular season title.
What's more, after both clubs were knocked out of the TELUS Canadian Championship this week, there's even greater pressure on each team to win some other silverware in 2025.
Forge are the current Shield leaders, with a 14-7-2 record and 47 points. Their seat at the top of the table has become much less comfortable lately, after losing their last two away games to Cavalry and Valour.
Although the Hamilton club have been in first place since Aug. 2, they find themselves under threat from Ottawa now after their form has dipped in recent weeks. Last Thursday, they took the lead in Winnipeg but conceded twice in the second half to drop all three points.
Tuesday night's match in the Canadian Championship semifinal was even more disappointing for the Hammers, who lost 4-0 to MLS outfit Vancouver Whitecaps to exit the competition. Now, they return to Ontario needing a repsonse.
Atleti, meanwhile, are likewise in a frustrated moment and keen on making a statement after their own CanChamp defeat. They found themselves knocked out of the tournament at home by Vancouver FC on Thursday night, scoring once but unable to overcome a first-leg deficit which meant the CPL's last-place side took the tie 3-2 on aggregate.
After that result though, Atleti head coach Diego Mejía remains bullish on his team's abilities.
"This team has the quality to fight for everything," Mejía said Friday. "I think that we have been protagonists in all the tournaments — in the league, in the cup. For sure everybody knows that we are the best team playing soccer in this league. Right now we need to put the focus in the league to try to win the championship, and then to win the playoffs. Our goal doesn't change."
In the table, Ottawa have 45 points with a 13-8-2 record. Their most recent league outing was at York Lions Stadium last Sunday, when they took a lead twice but allowed York United to equalize both times, leading to a 2-2 draw.
However, Atleti have been in very solid form in the league recently. They have lost just one of their last 15 CPL matches, and are unbeaten in four straight.
That one recent loss, though? To Forge FC, in Hamilton about a month ago. On that occasion, Forge took a strong grip on the Shield race by thoroughly outplaying Atlético, winning 2-0 in an impressive display. Forge outshot Ottawa 18 to eight, conceding just one shot on target in the game.
The two prior meetings between these sides in 2025 both ended in draws, so Forge are the only side to truly solve the other this season. That's why Atleti are extra keen to punch back — particularly since the head-to-head record is a key tiebreaker in the standings, should this Shield race come down to that.
3 THINGS TO WATCH
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True six-pointer means full concentration required: Both Ottawa and Forge know that if they win this game, they will finish the weekend in first place with four games left. Those stakes are massive, considering the rewards that await whichever team lifts the CPL Shield and wins the regular season title. So, both managers will be imploring their players to be switched on for the entire 90-plus minutes; these two sides are better than any other in the league at punishing lapses in focus or unforced errors, and those kinds of moments have been the cuprits for most of both teams' few disappointing moments in 2025. An early goal would set the tone for a back-and-forth track meet, which may suit Ottawa better, but the longer Forge have to break them down, the more dangerous the Hammers become.
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Salter chases 20 at front of potent Ottawa attack: One of the best stories in the CPL this season has been the outrageous form of striker Sam Salter. He already broke the CPL's single-season goals record with his 15th, and he's now up to 17, with eyes on being the first player to crack 20. Meanwhile, his teammate David Rodríguez leads the league with seven assists, and he's perhaps aiming to be the first CPLer to hit 10 helpers. So, all that has added up to an incredibly dangerous Ottawa attack, which is well on pace to be the highest-scoring team in any CPL season. Atleti have 46 goals so far this year, the all-time record being the 51 Cavalry scored in 2019. They've only been held scoreless four times this year, but Forge were one of the teams that did it; can the Hammers keep Atlético quiet once again?
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Forge hope to shake off recent form, return to regular level: After losing three of their last four games in all competitions, Forge no longer look quite as immovable as they did a month ago when their unbeaten streak was still alive. They were handily beaten by Cavalry three weeks ago, then dropped a frustrating result to Valour before the heavy CanChamp loss in Vancouver. However, Bobby Smyrniotis and his staff surely aren't too worried, and will consider this recent run to be a blip on the radar. That said, this isn't a matchup where they can afford to be off their game, especially given the context of the standings. Don't expect any major changes in the way Forge line up, after they put out arguably their strongest XI against the Whitecaps and will likely do so again this weekend, but Smyrniotis will need them to be sharper on the ball this time.
PROJECTED STARTING XIs
Atlético Ottawa: Ingham; Cloutier, Abatneh, Kozlovskiy; Antinoro, Aparicio, Castro, Dos Santos; Rodríguez, Salter, Tabla
Forge FC: Koleilat; Rama, Nimick, Achinioti-Jönsson, Jevremović; Bekker, Hojabrpour, Borges; Ampomah, Wright, Massunda
ALL-TIME SERIES
Atlético Ottawa wins: 5 || Forge wins: 14 || Draws: 5
Last meeting:
Aug. 17, 2025 — Forge 2-0 Atlético Ottawa
KEY QUOTES
"I think we shouldn't change anything. We need to respect our model. It's a model that's finally playing the way I want to play; we put the pressure on the rival. Maybe we need to work on some patterns to attack the defensive line of Forge." – Atlético Ottawa head coach Diego Mejía
"The biggest thing is both teams can attack. They can attack quick; there's goals in the teams, and you need to find the right balance. You look at different circumstances from game to game, you look at playing surfaces — the surface at TD Place not the greatest, if we're being honest — all those come into effect. You look at the variables of the game, but overall you have quality players on the pitch, quality attacking players across both teams, and that makes games exciting." – Forge FC head coach Bobby Smyrniotis
