THE OUTCOME: What's at stake, and how does playoff seeding work?

The 2025 Canadian Premier League regular season comes to a close this Saturday, and for a second straight year, all eight clubs will kick off simultaneously at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT as part of The Outcome.

A lot remains undecided in the league table, including — most importantly — the CPL Shield. Either Forge FC or Atlético Ottawa will lift the Shield as regular season winners on Saturday, but we don't yet know which. Plus, three sides are still fighting for positions between third and fourth in the table ahead of the CPL Playoffs.

There's a lot to keep track of this weekend, but here's everything you need to know about The Outcome.

Match Schedule & How to Watch

All four games will be played concurrently across the country on Saturday, Oct. 18, and each will be available to watch in its entirety on OneSoccer. New this year, The Outcome will also be broadcast live on TSN, where viewers nationwide can watch full coverage of the biggest moments from each match.

Here's the full slate in matchweek 28:

• Pacific FC vs. Valour FC — Starlight Stadium, Langford, B.C.
• Vancouver FC vs. Cavalry FC — Willoughby Community Park, Langley, B.C.
• Forge FC vs. York United FC — Hamilton Stadium, Hamilton, Ont.
• Halifax Wanderers FC vs. Atlético Ottawa — Wanderers Grounds, Halifax, N.S.

All matches kick off at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

How could the battle for third play out?

All three of Cavalry FC, Halifax Wanderers, and York United could still feasibly finish in third place. Here's where they stand entering The Outcome:

All three sides play different teams, so Halifax and York would both need outside help (particularly from Vancouver FC) to finish third.

The Cavs clinch third with a win at Vancouver, but Halifax and York could both jump that high with a win and favourable results elsewhere. The scenarios will be fairly obvious if teams are separated in the standings by points, but if any of them end up tied, it does get tricker.

Cavalry hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Halifax. They won two and drew two against the Wanderers this year.

York, however, have a head-to-head advantage over Cavalry. Though both sides won twice against the other this year, York outscored the Cavs six to five for a better head-to-head goal differential.

Finally, Halifax own the tiebreaker over York. They beat the Nine Stripes twice this year, with a draw and a loss as well.

All that said, the first tiebreaker is still wins. If Cavalry get a draw and the Wanderers win, putting them both on 42 points, then Halifax finish ahead with 12 wins.

Why does playoff seeding matter?

For those who aren't familiar with the CPL's five-team playoff structure, here's a refresher. The full bracket is laid out below.

The ascent begins in the Knockout Match, played midweek following the end of the regular season. The fourth-place side hosts fifth place in the first match of the postseason — last year, York United beat Pacific FC at home in this game.

Whichever club wins that match heads to the Semifinal Qualifier the following weekend (Oct. 25-26), where they'll be hosted by the team that finished third. That's why third place is important: a full week of rest rather than quick turnaround with travel, and a path to the CPL Final that's one match shorter. The extra time off and home field advantage may have helped Atlético Ottawa beat York United on penalties last season.

Meanwhile, that same weekend will see the league's top two teams square off in the Championship Semifinal. First place hosts second place, and the winner goes directly to the Final, two weeks later in their home stadium. In 2024, Forge took on Cavalry here, and the visiting Cavs won to set up a Final at ATCO Field.

There's just one playoff game the weekend of Nov. 1-2, and it's the last chance for somebody to book a spot in the Final. The loser of the Championship Semifinal and the winner of the Semifinal Qualifer — either third, fourth or fifth place — play at the home of the higher seed for the right to be the visitors in the following week's Final. A year ago, this is where Forge FC knocked off Atlético Ottawa to get to the Final.

After that comes the CPL Final, of course, where the last two teams standing will fight to hoist the North Star Cup as Cavalry did in 2024.

Home field is an enormous advantage in the CPL Playoffs; only one of the eight elimination games in the past two years under this format has been won by the away team (when Pacific beat Halifax in the 2023 Semifinal Qualifier). Each spot in the CPL table, from first to fifth, comes with a significant advantage over the spot below.

That's why each of the top five teams is desperate to climb as high as possible in The Outcome on Saturday.

What else could be decided?

There are a few individual accolades and records left to track over the final weekend.

The Golden Boot for the top regular season scorer will technically be decided after Saturday's games, but Atlético Ottawa's Sam Salter (19 goals) has a lead of seven over his closest competitor Tiago Coimbra. Salter will almost certainly win the Boot barring anything truly insane, but it's worth noting that whatever total he ends up with will be the CPL's new all-time single-season goals record. He passed Joao Morelli's 2021 mark with his 15th goal several weeks ago.

If Salter scores in Halifax, he'd be the first player ever to score 20 in a CPL regular season.

Speaking of records and Ottawa players, David Rodríguez's nine assists this year is tied for the single-season record set by Sean Rea in 2022. One more for him on Saturday would make the record all his own.

Other records that will be set: it's already the highest-scoring season in CPL history, with 323 goals scored, so however many are added on Saturday will add to the new record.

The teams at the bottom of the table will also have things to fight for. The Pacific-Valour clash, while it won't have any impact on the playoff picture, will be a fight for sixth place, which would be a more positive finish for either side. Vancouver FC, meanwhile, will look to end on a high note and stretch their current unbeaten streak to six matches — and in doing so play spoiler against Cavalry, with whom they've had some great battles this season.

On Saturday night, the focus will pivot entirely to the CPL Playoffs, and we'll officially know each team's path to the North Star Cup.

Don't miss a minute, live on OneSoccer and TSN.